Gypsysavage’s Weblog

Well… it’s here. The closed primaries in Pennsylvania tomorrow may very well determine whom the Democratic Party sends to Denver in August. Clinton carries the elderly, who, unlike their younger counterparts, never fail to come out in droves and crush an election.

According to most polls, Clinton also carries white males making under $30,000 a year (many of whom do cling to their guns and bibles in the face of hard times, contrary to political gaffes), an enormous constituent in a state that has never played such a major roll in a primary.

Obama carries the youth, who have not failed to disappoint in a single election. But if he outflanks the steady barrage of political fire (from reactionary black reverends to pseudo-elitist, albeit truthful, remarks about white America), and earns his keep in Philadelphia and in other urban districts in eastern and central Pennsylvania, he may just narrow Clinton’s margin – or perhaps even overcome it – forcing her to face the music (in this case, Taps). He is also outspending Clinton in television advertisements by at least $6 million.

I would like to take a moment and vent: Clinton’s main argument for staying in the race was, according to her husband, to continue to discuss the issues and give people another choice to face off with McCain. That’s fine. However, almost two months after Bubba made his “let’s all chill out” remark, and after last week’s disappointing debate that showcased the bitter resentments of political backtalk and mudslinging and in which no real issues were discussed, we have had no discourse on healthcare, education, the economy, Iraq, or the constitutional issues now on the Supreme Court backburner like gun control.

Clinton herself said that the reason she is still in this race, unlike her opponent, is her “electability.” But she conceded yesterday that Obama “can win” this election . “I don’t see any contradiction at all. . . . He can be elected; I will be elected,” she said.

So what is the point, if Hillary loses this primary, or at the very least, wins it marginally by single digits, to continue running?

Let us look at the facts:

Obama: 1,635.5 pledged and projected delegates

Clinton: 1,474.5 pledged and projected delegates

Obama: 13,355,209 in popular votes

Clinton: 12,638,123 in popular votes*

At this point, I would not be surprised if Clinton continued to run despite a marginal victory in PA and in the face of fierce opposition from delegates (and after having lost the popular vote as well thus far). In an act of shear political piracy, she will attempt (yet again) to burgle votes from Florida and Michigan. These moves would entail a circus of a convention (although it would be interesting, to say the least, to see two opponents squaring off in Denver as it once used to be done in this country), but it also means that once the Democratic Party chooses its wounded and weary victor, it has weeks, not months, to maneuver against McCain, who will by that time have all the fodder to sling before he begins his final sprint toward Washington. The smell of blood is in the air.

*This excludes the projected numbers of votes in IA, NV, ME, and WA, which have not yet released their popular vote numbers, according to RealClearPolitics.com